My observance of a head and shoulders top is confirmed when you assess the following:
A head and shoulders top pattern is an advance to a new high followed by weakness to intermediate support, a second rally to a higher high, a failure to hold it and a decline to the support level. This rally is retested to an unassuming third rally followed by a sharp fall by the support levels.
Head and shoulders top
My observance of a head and shoulders top is confirmed when you assess the
following:
A head and shoulders top pattern is an advance to a new high followed by
weakness to intermediate support, a second rally to a higher high, a failure to
hold it and a decline to the support level. This rally is retested to an
unassuming third rally followed by a sharp fall by the support levels.
Why does this occur?
Head and shoulder patterns are reversal patterns that are amongst the most
significant in terms of reliability and frequent. The head and shoulders
pattern consists of three rallies and then a breakdown to a new low. The
pattern is quite often quoted as the middle rally is described as the head (the
highest point of the rally). The primary and third rally is generally of
adequate height representing the shoulders.
This pattern generally evolves from an extended rally to new highs. The
opportunistic traders are seemingly sure based on the market information being
rather positive. You could have a re-rating of a buy from research houses to
confirm the market sentiment. This could promote the stock charge higher, but
days after these net takers decide to sell it off and take profits. This causes
a pullback or a reaction low. Traders appear to accept the profit taking and
show no concern for the weakness, unfortunately trouble waits.
On the first decline those traders who had been more assertive buying at a
lower price begin to sell off their positions in to the positive sentiment.
They have reached their profit targets and are keen to move on. The stock price
falls and hits a reaction low. tenacious term holders of the stock hold the
charge at the reply low and after a few days the stock regroups on extra
positive news and the share cost reaches a fresh second high, much higher than
the first new high. Still with the confirming sentiment and positive market
conditions the stock cannot hold this level as the volume of buyers has
desiccated up. This creates the head or the second high. The sell off begins
rapidly as earlier buys try to protect their gains. The institutions also
decide to protect their profits and possibly there are traders pushing the
stock lower. The stock declines back to the reaction low, further positive
speculation hits the market and forces up the price, some traders cannot resist
a bargain.
Regrettably, the final third rally of the design is less convincing than the
previous two earlier advances. The stock price does mover higher but the volume
is weak and stock distribution is apparent. Following a number of sessions the
declines return and the stock moves back to the reaction lows. This is often
called the neck line (within keeping of the image of the head and shoulders
pattern). Unperturbed the sellers ignore the market opinion and the sell off is
widespread and solid. The heavy volume causes the stock to collapse and
throughout the coming weeks the share trades at its long term sustain
levels.
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