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Home | Finance | Stock Market Investing | Double Base - Head a ...

Double Base - Head and Shoulders Top and Bottom

Submitted by Peter and viewed 260 times
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My observance of a head and shoulders top is confirmed when you assess the following: A head and shoulders top pattern is an advance to a new high followed by weakness to intermediate support, a second rally to a higher high, a failure to hold it and a decline to the support level. This rally is retested to an unassuming third rally followed by a sharp fall by the support levels.
Head and shoulders top

My observance of a head and shoulders top is confirmed when you assess the following:

A head and shoulders top pattern is an advance to a new high followed by weakness to intermediate support, a second rally to a higher high, a failure to hold it and a decline to the support level. This rally is retested to an unassuming third rally followed by a sharp fall by the support levels. 

Why does this occur?

Head and shoulder patterns are reversal patterns that are amongst the most significant in terms of reliability and frequent. The head and shoulders pattern consists of three rallies and then a breakdown to a new low. The pattern is quite often quoted as the middle rally is described as the head (the highest point of the rally). The primary and third rally is generally of adequate height representing the shoulders. 

This pattern generally evolves from an extended rally to new highs. The opportunistic traders are seemingly sure based on the market information being rather positive. You could have a re-rating of a buy from research houses to confirm the market sentiment. This could promote the stock charge higher, but days after these net takers decide to sell it off and take profits. This causes a pullback or a reaction low. Traders appear to accept the profit taking and show no concern for the weakness, unfortunately trouble waits. 

On the first decline those traders who had been more assertive buying at a lower price begin to sell off their positions in to the positive sentiment. They have reached their profit targets and are keen to move on. The stock price falls and hits a reaction low. tenacious term holders of the stock hold the charge at the reply low and after a few days the stock regroups on extra positive news and the share cost reaches a fresh second high, much higher than the first new high. Still with the confirming sentiment and positive market conditions the stock cannot hold this level as the volume of buyers has desiccated up. This creates the head or the second high. The sell off begins rapidly as earlier buys try to protect their gains. The institutions also decide to protect their profits and possibly there are traders pushing the stock lower. The stock declines back to the reaction low, further positive speculation hits the market and forces up the price, some traders cannot resist a bargain. 

Regrettably, the final third rally of the design is less convincing than the previous two earlier advances. The stock price does mover higher but the volume is weak and stock distribution is apparent. Following a number of sessions the declines return and the stock moves back to the reaction lows. This is often called the neck line (within keeping of the image of the head and shoulders pattern). Unperturbed the sellers ignore the market opinion and the sell off is widespread and solid. The heavy volume causes the stock to collapse and throughout the coming weeks the share trades at its long term sustain levels. 

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About the author
TradingLounge™.com.au and the TradingLevels™ Analysis Service have been developed by Peter Mathers to meet a growing demand for accessible, sensible education and his TradingLevels™-based analysis. Delivering high quality analysis and trades recommendations for shares, CFDs, fx trading, indices, commodity, the TradingLounge™ has been in strong demand growing from strength to strength. Peter is author of "Trading CFDs in Today's Markets". If you want to know more about trading analysis, click here.
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