Prior Trend: Importantly, the establishment of a prior trend is required for this to be considered as a reversal pattern. Without the history of a former up trend to reverse, a head and shoulders top cannot be confirmed. Left Shoulder: during this uptrend formation, the left shoulder forms a peak and defines the new reply high in the existing trend. Once formed, the potential advance ensues and by it completes the left shoulder pattern (1).
1. Prior Trend: Importantly, the establishment of a prior
trend is required for this to be considered as a reversal pattern. Without the
history of a former up trend to reverse, a head and shoulders top cannot be
confirmed.
2. Left Shoulder: during this uptrend formation, the left
shoulder forms a peak and defines the new reply high in the existing trend.
Once formed, the potential advance ensues and by it completes the left shoulder
pattern (1).
3. Head: the left shoulder low points mark an advance that
far exceeds the former high and creates the head of the form. A further decline
represents the right hand side of the neck line.
4. Right Shoulder: the third advance creates the right
shoulder, this rally is lower than the head and is usually equal to the left
shoulder rally, and it is preferred to have a symmetrical pattern but sometimes
not the case. The fall of the share price (right shoulder) should breach the
neckline.
5. Neckline: the neckline evolves by simply connecting the
two reaction lows (1 and 2). The reaction low 1 completes the establishment of
the left shoulder and the start of the head. The reaction high 2 completes the
formation of the head and the development of the right shoulder. Depending on
the association of the two reaction lows the neckline can slope up, down or be
equal in appearance. The slope of the neckline will affect the patterns degree
of confidence in the stock. A downward slope indicates a more bearish sentiment
in the market
6. Volume: with the head and shoulders top pattern
unfolding, volume has an important role in the confirmation of the pattern. It
is preferred that the volume on the left shoulder figure is higher than the
advance head section. The warning unfolds with the decreased volume. The
following warning is if the volume increases on the rapid fall towards the
neck, the conclusion is when volume increases even further as the price falls
away at the right shoulder.
7. Neckline Break: The head and shoulders bottom pattern is
not completed and the uptrend is not reversed until the neckline support is
breached. There should be a convincing growth of volume for this to be defined.
8. Support turned Resistance: when the support is broken, it
is quite common for these same levels of support to evolve into resistance. On
occasion but not always the share price will fall to the support break and this
gives traders a second opportunity to close positions.
9. Price target: Once the neckline resistance is broken, to
project the possible decline, you would calculate the following. You measure
the distance from the neck line to the top of the head. You then subtract the
measurement from the neckline to reach the new price target in the future. This
should just be used as a guide to the target price as other factors can come
into play.
| About the author |
TradingLounge™.com.au and the TradingLevels™ Analysis Service have been developed by Peter Mathers to meet a growing demand for accessible, sensible education and his TradingLevels™-based analysis. Delivering high quality analysis and trades recommendations for shares, CFDs, fx trading, indices, commodity, the TradingLounge™ has been in strong demand growing from strength to strength. Peter is author of "Trading CFDs in Today's Markets". If you want to know more about trading analysis, click here.
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